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공공누리This item is licensed Korea Open Government License

Title
The effect of public health interventions on the spread of influenza among cities
Author(s)
이정민최동훈
Publication Year
2012-01-21
Abstract
Infectiousdiseaseisnolongeralocalproblem.Modernpopulationsaremoremobilethaneverbefore,andwiththismobilitycomesactiveglobalmixingofinfectiousdisease.Tounderstandthespreadofdiseasessuchasinfluenza,weuseamulti-cityepidemicmodel.WeextendtheSEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered)modeltoincorporatepopulationmigrationbetweencities,andusethismodeltoanalyzethegeographicspreadofinfluenza.Weinvestigatetheeffectivenessoftravelrestrictionsasacontrolagainstthespreadofinfluenza.

Firstweobtainthebasicreproductionnumberforthesinglecitycase,andobservetwoothercontrolstrategiessuggestedbythiscase:increasingthenumberofclinicallyillindividualsthataretreated,andreducingtheintervalbetweeninfectionandtreatmentofsuchindividuals.

Weevaluatetheeffectivenessofthethreecontrolstrategieswithnumericalsimulations.Itisshownthattravelrestrictionsarelesseffectivethantheothertwostrategies.Ingeneral,travelrestrictiontendstodelaythespreadofthediseaseintonewcities.However,itcanincreasethepeakheightofinfectedpopulationsinallcities.Anunderstandingoftheepidemiologicalstructuresofrelatedcitiesisstronglyrecommendedinordertoeffectivelyapplythetravelrestrictionstrategy.
Keyword
Epidemicmodel; Basicreproductionnumber; Multi-citymodel; Transmissionmatrix; Infectiousdiseasecontrol
Journal Title
journaloftheoreticalbiology
Citation Volume
293
ISSN
0022-5193
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Appears in Collections:
7. KISTI 연구성과 > 학술지 발표논문
URI
https://repository.kisti.re.kr/handle/10580/14070
http://www.ndsl.kr/ndsl/search/detail/article/articleSearchResultDetail.do?cn=NART58157369
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