KISTI Institutional Repository: The effect of public health interventions on the spread of influenza among cities

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dc.identifier.uri: http://www.ndsl.kr/ndsl/search/detail/article/articleSearchResultDetail.do?cn=NART58157369

dc.description.abstract: Infectiousdiseaseisnolongeralocalproblem.Modernpopulationsaremoremobilethaneverbefore,andwiththismobilitycomesactiveglobalmixingofinfectiousdisease.Tounderstandthespreadofdiseasessuchasinfluenza,weuseamulti-cityepidemicmodel.WeextendtheSEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered)modeltoincorporatepopulationmigrationbetweencities,andusethismodeltoanalyzethegeographicspreadofinfluenza.Weinvestigatetheeffectivenessoftravelrestrictionsasacontrolagainstthespreadofinfluenza.

Firstweobtainthebasicreproductionnumberforthesinglecitycase,andobservetwoothercontrolstrategiessuggestedbythiscase:increasingthenumberofclinicallyillindividualsthataretreated,andreducingtheintervalbetweeninfectionandtreatmentofsuchindividuals.

Weevaluatetheeffectivenessofthethreecontrolstrategieswithnumericalsimulations.Itisshownthattravelrestrictionsarelesseffectivethantheothertwostrategies.Ingeneral,travelrestrictiontendstodelaythespreadofthediseaseintonewcities.However,itcanincreasethepeakheightofinfectedpopulationsinallcities.Anunderstandingoftheepidemiologicalstructuresofrelatedcitiesisstronglyrecommendedinordertoeffectivelyapplythetravelrestrictionstrategy.