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공공누리This item is licensed Korea Open Government License

Title
Developing an Improved Risk-Adjusted Net Present
Author(s)
우종학김응도이정희성태응이종택신광수
Publisher
Springer
Publication Year
2019-07-22
Abstract
The financial valuation of a drug that is still under development is required for various purposes. The risk-adjusted net present value (r-NPV) method, which recently emerged in the biotech industry, uses the development attrition rate as a discount factor to reflect risk during each development phase. The r-NPV method was developed to overcome the disadvantages of the prevailing discounted cash flow and real options methods and considers drug type, as well as the stage of development in its approach. Using this method, the current study examines technology values in the biopharmaceutical industry and matches the clinical development periods and success rates of these new drugs by analyzing datasets from ClinicalTrials.gov and MedTrack DB. It thus provides support for an empirical valuation model for experts in the field. Notably, there is limited research on the attrition rate and development period of new substance drugs and the research results are not consistently presented. In addition to new substance drugs, further research is necessary to deepen understanding of the attrition rate and development period of biologically-based drugs because of their inherent physical and developmental differences. Similarly, research on performance specifics within drug class models would enable refinement of the model.
Keyword
risk adjusted valuation; net present value; clinical trials development period; likelihood of approval; possibility of success; discounted cash flow
Journal Title
Journal of open innovation : technology, market, and complexity;
Citation Volume
5
ISSN
2199-8531
DOI
10.3390/joitmc5030045
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Appears in Collections:
7. KISTI 연구성과 > 학술지 발표논문
URI
https://repository.kisti.re.kr/handle/10580/16305
Fulltext
 https://scienceon.kisti.re.kr/srch/selectPORSrchArticle.do?cn=NART108112617
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