Performance of K-MPAS on Typhoon Track Prediction with Variable Resolution Grids Focusing on Western Pacific Basin

Abstract

Objectives : We aim to generate accurate typhoon track prediction in order to provide essential information for theDecision Making Support System(DMSS) of natural disasters that has been developed at KISTI(K-DMSS) inorder to help avoid serious damage of human lives and properties.Methods : The Next generation weather/climate model MPAS(Model for Prediction Across Scales) has been selectedfor the typhoon track prediction of K-DMSS, a global atmospheric model recently developed by NCAR(US NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research) under a collaborative research project with KISTI. Defining features ofMPAS enable us to run the global to regional weather prediction in a computationally efficient way with better accuracythan other global NWP models. The version of MPAS optimized especially for typhoon track forecasting, referredto as K-MPAS, has been developed through a KISTI-NCAR collaborative research project.Results : Verification of K-MPAS typhoon track prediction for the cases that occurred in both 2015 and 2016 showsthat K-MPAS has been sufficiently advanced to produce comparable or even better results than other operationalNWP models, in terms of typhoon track prediction.Conclusion : As a result of a two year verification of the typhoon track prediction, we conclude that K-MPAS is awell-qualified prediction system to provide excellent typhoon track prediction of K-DMSS responding to natural disasters.We plan to advance K-MPAS further with GPU acceleration and a data assimilation system, which we expectto help generate more accurate prediction with less computing time.